Determinantes del desempleo en la región La Libertad, año 2021
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Date
2023
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Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
Abstract
Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo analizar si el área de residencia, el estado civil, la edad, la jefatura del hogar, el género, el nivel de educación y la pobreza fueron determinantes del desempleo en la región La Libertad en el año 2021. Se utilizaron datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares del INEI para describir el desempleo en la región en el año 2021, describir los factores determinantes del desempleo en la región durante el mismo año y elaborar un modelo econométrico que permita identificar cuales fueron esos determinantes. Se construyeron dos modelos probabilísticos, uno Logit y otro Probit, para poder establecer si las variables analizadas influían en la probabilidad del individuo de encontrarse desempleado, de los cuales se escogió al modelo Logit por ser ligeramente más robusto. De este modelo se pudo observar que las variables área de residencia, estado civil, edad, jefatura del hogar, género, nivel de educación y pobreza fueron significativos y determinantes del desempleo de región La Libertad en el año 2021. Las variables más influyentes fueron el área de residencia, donde residir en área urbana aumenta en un promedio de 5.76% la probabilidad de estar desempleado; el estado civil, pues ser soltero aumenta en un promedio de 4.83% la probabilidad de estar desempleado; la edad, tal que tener 45 años o más reduce en promedio de 1.81% la probabilidad de estar desempleado; y la jefatura del hogar, debido a que ser jefe de hogar reduce en un promedio de 4.08% la probabilidad de estar desempleado. Finalmente, se encontró que residir en área urbana, ser soltero y pobre aumentan la probabilidad de encontrarse desempleado; mientras que, tener 45 años o más, ser jefe de hogar, pertenecer al género masculino y contar con el nivel de educación superior reducen la probabilidad de encontrarse desempleado.
ABSTRACT The objective of this research was to analyze whether area of residence, marital status, age, head of household, gender, education level and poverty were determinants of unemployment in the La Libertad region in the year 2021. Data from INEI's National Household Survey were used to describe unemployment in the region in the year 2021, to describe the determinants of unemployment in the region during the same year, and to develop an econometric model to identify what those determinants were. Two probabilistic models were constructed, one Logit and the other Probit, to establish whether the variables analyzed influenced the individual's probability of being unemployed, of which the Logit model was chosen because it was slightly more robust. This model showed that the variables area of residence, marital status, age, head of household, gender, level of education and poverty were significant and determinants of unemployment in La Libertad region in 2021. The most influential variables were area of residence, where residing in an urban area increases the probability of being unemployed by an average of 5.76%; marital status, since being single increases the probability of being unemployed by an average of 4.83%; age, since being 45 years old or older reduces the probability of being unemployed by an average of 1.81%; and head of household, since being head of household reduces the probability of being unemployed by an average of 4.08%. Finally, it was found that residing in an urban area, being single and poor increase the probability of being unemployed, while being 45 years of age or older, being head of household, belonging to the male gender and having higher education reduce the probability of being unemployed.
ABSTRACT The objective of this research was to analyze whether area of residence, marital status, age, head of household, gender, education level and poverty were determinants of unemployment in the La Libertad region in the year 2021. Data from INEI's National Household Survey were used to describe unemployment in the region in the year 2021, to describe the determinants of unemployment in the region during the same year, and to develop an econometric model to identify what those determinants were. Two probabilistic models were constructed, one Logit and the other Probit, to establish whether the variables analyzed influenced the individual's probability of being unemployed, of which the Logit model was chosen because it was slightly more robust. This model showed that the variables area of residence, marital status, age, head of household, gender, level of education and poverty were significant and determinants of unemployment in La Libertad region in 2021. The most influential variables were area of residence, where residing in an urban area increases the probability of being unemployed by an average of 5.76%; marital status, since being single increases the probability of being unemployed by an average of 4.83%; age, since being 45 years old or older reduces the probability of being unemployed by an average of 1.81%; and head of household, since being head of household reduces the probability of being unemployed by an average of 4.08%. Finally, it was found that residing in an urban area, being single and poor increase the probability of being unemployed, while being 45 years of age or older, being head of household, belonging to the male gender and having higher education reduce the probability of being unemployed.
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Keywords
Desempleo, Empleo, La Libertad