Determinantes económicos de la inversión privada en el Perú, período: 2000 – 2017
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Date
2019
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Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
Abstract
En la presente investigación tuvo como fin principal precisar cuáles son los principales determinantes económicos que afectan a la inversión privada peruana durante el periodo 2000 – 2017, basándose en la teoría postkeynesiana sobre la demanda efectiva que comprende el consumo privado, el gasto público y el nivel de exportaciones. La metodología utilizada fue de carácter cuantitativo, descriptivo – correlacional, no experimental y de series temporales. Además, la población y muestra por su naturaleza de la investigación fueron iguales y el método científico utilizado fue el deductivo. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos a través de un modelo econométrico de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios fueron los siguientes: si el Consumo Privado aumenta en 1% en promedio, la inversión privada aumentaría en 1.18%; si la inversión pública aumenta en 1% en promedio, la inversión privada aumentaría en 0.07%; si el nivel de exportaciones aumenta en 1% en promedio, la inversión privada aumentaría en 0.51% y si el tipo de cambio real aumenta en 1% en promedio, la inversión privada disminuiría en -1.23%. Adicionalmente, mediante la prueba de Cointegración de Engle y Granger se determinó que las variables de consumo privado, inversión pública, el nivel de exportaciones y el tipo de cambio real cointegran con la inversión privada, por lo cual, entre dichas variables existe relación de equilibrio a largo plazo.
ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to determine what are the main factors that affect Peruvian private investment during the period 2000-2017, to determine in post Keynesian theory the effective demand, that includes private consumption, public spending and the level of exports. The precise methodology was quantitative, descriptive - correlational, non-experimental and time series. In addition, the population and the sample, due to their nature of the research, were the same and the scientific method used as the deductive. Finally, the updated results through an economic model of ordinary least squares were the following: if private consumption increases by 1% on average, private investment increases by 1.18%; if public investment increases by 1% on average, private investment increases by 0.07%; If the level of exports increases by 1% on average, private investment would increase by 0.51% and if the real exchange rate increases by 1% on average, private investment will decrease by -1.23%. In addition, through the Engle and Granger Cointegration test, it was determined that the variables of private consumption, public investment, the level of exports and the real exchange rate cointegrate with private investment, therefore, between the existing variables there is a relationship of long-term equilibrium.
ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to determine what are the main factors that affect Peruvian private investment during the period 2000-2017, to determine in post Keynesian theory the effective demand, that includes private consumption, public spending and the level of exports. The precise methodology was quantitative, descriptive - correlational, non-experimental and time series. In addition, the population and the sample, due to their nature of the research, were the same and the scientific method used as the deductive. Finally, the updated results through an economic model of ordinary least squares were the following: if private consumption increases by 1% on average, private investment increases by 1.18%; if public investment increases by 1% on average, private investment increases by 0.07%; If the level of exports increases by 1% on average, private investment would increase by 0.51% and if the real exchange rate increases by 1% on average, private investment will decrease by -1.23%. In addition, through the Engle and Granger Cointegration test, it was determined that the variables of private consumption, public investment, the level of exports and the real exchange rate cointegrate with private investment, therefore, between the existing variables there is a relationship of long-term equilibrium.
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Keywords
Inversión privada, Determinantes económicos, Consumo privado, Tipo de cambio, Exportaciones