Distribución potencial de Penelope albipennis, actual y futuro en un modelo y tres escenarios de cambio climático en el noreste del Perú
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2024
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
Abstract
Los modelos de distribución potencial a futuro bajo diferentes escenarios de cambio climático, son herramientas clave para evaluar los efectos adversos de esta problemática sobre las especies y proponer medidas adecuadas para la sostenibilidad de su conservación. Además de encontrarse en peligro crítico por impactos antropogénicos, la pava aliblanca Penelope albipennis podría también ser afectada por los impactos del calentamiento global. Se empleó el software MaxEnt en RStudio para la elaboración de modelos de distribución potencial actual, idoneidad de hábitat y las variaciones futuras bajo escenarios de cambio climático utilizando tres escenarios socioeconómicos (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 y SSP5-8.5) y tres periodos del modelo IPSL-CM6A-LR (2041-2060, 2061-2080 y 2081-2100). Los resultados obtenidos en el presente indican que, para el área potencial, se proyecta una pérdida del 2.31% y una ganancia del 0.57% del hábitat idóneo de P. albipennis, dependiendo del periodo de tiempo y escenario a futuro. Las Áreas Protegidas críticas debido a la reducción significativa en la probabilidad de presencia promedio son Refugio de Vida Silvestre Laquipampa (-9.35%), Mangamanguilla de la Asociación Agraria Manga Manga de Salitral (-8.96%), Los Bosques de Dotor, Hualtacal, Pueblo Libre, La Jardina y Chorro Blanco (-7.80%) Bosques Secos Salitral - Huarmaca (-7.54%). El modelo identificó como área potencial para la presencia de la especie áreas dentro y en inmediaciones del Parque Nacional Cerros de Amotape (PNCA). Además, dicha zona mostró una expansión en el área de hábitat idóneo (1.4%) a futuro. Estos resultados proporcionan una base sólida para futuros estudios sobre el impacto del cambio climático, permitiendo la identificación de unidades de conservación prioritarias y el desarrollo de estrategias de adaptación específicas para enfrentar las alteraciones climáticas. Se sugiere realizar expediciones de búsqueda de poblaciones que potencialmente pueden habitar el PNCA
Future potential distribution models under different climate change scenarios are key tools to assess the adverse effects of this issue on species and propose adequate measures for their conservation sustainability. In addition to being critically endangered by anthropogenic impacts, the white-winged guan, Penelope albipennis, could also be affected by the impacts of global warming. MaxEnt software in RStudio was used to develop current potential distribution models, habitat suitability, and future variations under climate change scenarios using three socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and three periods of the IPSL-CM6A-LR model (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The results obtained in this study indicate that for the potential area, a loss of 2.31% and a gain of 0.57% of suitable habitat for P. albipennis is projected, depending on the time period and future scenario. The critical Protected Areas due to the significant reduction in the average probability of presence are Laquipampa Wildlife Refuge (-9.35%), Mangamanguilla of the Manga Manga Agricultural Association of Salitral (-8.96%), Los Bosques de Dotor, Hualtacal, Pueblo Libre, La Jardina, and Chorro Blanco (-7.80%), and Salitral - Huarmaca Dry Forests (-7.54%). The model identified areas within and around the Cerros de Amotape National Park (PNCA) as potential areas for the presence of the species. Moreover, this zone showed an expansion in the suitable habitat area in the future (1.4%). These results provide a solid basis for future studies on the impact of climate change, allowing the identification of priority conservation units and the development of specific adaptation strategies to address climate alterations. It is suggested to carry out expeditions to search for populations that may potentially inhabit the PNCA.
Future potential distribution models under different climate change scenarios are key tools to assess the adverse effects of this issue on species and propose adequate measures for their conservation sustainability. In addition to being critically endangered by anthropogenic impacts, the white-winged guan, Penelope albipennis, could also be affected by the impacts of global warming. MaxEnt software in RStudio was used to develop current potential distribution models, habitat suitability, and future variations under climate change scenarios using three socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and three periods of the IPSL-CM6A-LR model (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The results obtained in this study indicate that for the potential area, a loss of 2.31% and a gain of 0.57% of suitable habitat for P. albipennis is projected, depending on the time period and future scenario. The critical Protected Areas due to the significant reduction in the average probability of presence are Laquipampa Wildlife Refuge (-9.35%), Mangamanguilla of the Manga Manga Agricultural Association of Salitral (-8.96%), Los Bosques de Dotor, Hualtacal, Pueblo Libre, La Jardina, and Chorro Blanco (-7.80%), and Salitral - Huarmaca Dry Forests (-7.54%). The model identified areas within and around the Cerros de Amotape National Park (PNCA) as potential areas for the presence of the species. Moreover, this zone showed an expansion in the suitable habitat area in the future (1.4%). These results provide a solid basis for future studies on the impact of climate change, allowing the identification of priority conservation units and the development of specific adaptation strategies to address climate alterations. It is suggested to carry out expeditions to search for populations that may potentially inhabit the PNCA.
Description
Keywords
Penelope albipennis, distribución potencial, escenario de cambio climático, idoneidad de hábitat, MaxEnt, GCM, SSP.