Incidencia del gasto público y el capital humano en el crecimiento económico en el Perú, 2008-2016
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Date
2019
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Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
Abstract
A lo largo del tiempo el análisis del efecto del gasto público y el capital humano en el crecimiento económico, ha sido un tema de interés por su impacto en el bienestar de la población. Por lo cual, se elaboró una investigación con el objetivo de analizar la incidencia del gasto público y el capital humano en el crecimiento económico del Perú, 2008-2016. Para ello, se realizó un estudio cuantitativo, empírico y no experimental, utilizando un modelo de datos panel que consideró una muestra de series anuales del producto bruto interno, gasto corriente, gasto de capital, promedio de años de estudio alcanzado por la población de 15 y más años de edad y tasa de analfabetismo, comprendidas entre los años 2008 a 2016. Los resultados indican que un incremento del gasto corriente como porcentaje del PBI real conduce a un incremento del PBI al año siguiente. Un resultado similar se obtiene para la inversión pública. Se encuentra, además, que una reducción de la tasa de analfabetismo conduce a un mayor PBI (coeficiente negativo, según lo esperado). Igualmente, un aumento del número promedio de años de educación en la población mayor de 15 años está asociado con un incremento del PBI. Los coeficientes estimados para estas variables son estadísticamente significativos. Finalmente, se concluyó que el gasto público y el capital humano impulsan el crecimiento económico en el caso peruano durante el periodo 2008 a 2016.
ABSTRACT Over time, the analysis of the effect of public expenditure and human capital on economic growth has been a topic of interest because of its impact on the well-being of the population. Therefore, a research was carried out with the objective of analyzing the incidence of public expenditure and human capital in Peru's economic growth, 2008-2016. To this end, a quantitative, empirical and non-experimental study was carried out using a panel data model that considered a sample of annual series of gross domestic product, current expenditure, capital expenditure, average years of study reached by the population of 15 years of age and over and illiteracy rate, between 2008 and 2016. The results indicate that an increase in current spending as a percentage of real GDP leads to an increase in GDP the following year. A similar result is obtained for public investment. It is also found that a reduction in the illiteracy rate leads to a higher GDP (negative coefficient, as expected). Likewise, an increase in the average number of years of education in the population over 15 years of age is associated with an increase in GDP. The estimated coefficients for these variables are statistically significant. Finally, it was concluded that public expenditure and human capital drive economic growth in Peru during the period 2008 to 2016.
ABSTRACT Over time, the analysis of the effect of public expenditure and human capital on economic growth has been a topic of interest because of its impact on the well-being of the population. Therefore, a research was carried out with the objective of analyzing the incidence of public expenditure and human capital in Peru's economic growth, 2008-2016. To this end, a quantitative, empirical and non-experimental study was carried out using a panel data model that considered a sample of annual series of gross domestic product, current expenditure, capital expenditure, average years of study reached by the population of 15 years of age and over and illiteracy rate, between 2008 and 2016. The results indicate that an increase in current spending as a percentage of real GDP leads to an increase in GDP the following year. A similar result is obtained for public investment. It is also found that a reduction in the illiteracy rate leads to a higher GDP (negative coefficient, as expected). Likewise, an increase in the average number of years of education in the population over 15 years of age is associated with an increase in GDP. The estimated coefficients for these variables are statistically significant. Finally, it was concluded that public expenditure and human capital drive economic growth in Peru during the period 2008 to 2016.
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Keywords
Gasto público, Crecimiento económico, Capital humano