Impacto de la gestión de riesgos en los proyectos de estructuras metálicas de la Empresa Steelwork
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Date
2022
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Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
Abstract
La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal gestionar los impactos sobre los
objetivos de costo y tiempo en un proyecto de estructuras metálicas de la empresa Steelwork
Ingenieros S.A y para ello, se ha seguido la gestión de riesgos de la metodología propuesta por
la guía de gestión de proyectos del Project Management Institute (PMI) puesto que es el
estándar más aceptado a nivel mundial. El orden de la metodología guarda relación con la guía
PMBOK 6ta edición. Se inició con planificar la gestión de los riesgos contando con información
de los interesados del proyecto. A continuación, se identificaron los riesgos con información
adicional que se analizó y se consolidó en un registro de 87 riesgos divididos en 4 categorías.
Posteriormente, a partir de un cuestionario, se realizó un análisis cualitativo utilizando una
matriz de probabilidad e impacto que concluyó en una lista de riesgos de alta prioridad. Más
adelante, se realizó un análisis cuantitativo aplicando la simulación de Monte Carlo, que se
ejecutó en el programa Crystall Ball de Excel. Se utilizó la distribución binomial y la
distribución PERT donde se obtuvo un gráfico de curva S y un análisis de sensibilidad. Se
realizó la simulación de la incertidumbre con un 95 por ciento de confianza y se obtuvo un
costo de 1 770 742.87 soles y un tiempo de 66.86 días. Además, se incluyó la gestión de los
riesgos en la simulación y se obtuvo un costo de 1 795 850.37 soles y un tiempo de 78.91 días.
Finalmente, se realizó la planificación de la respuesta a los riesgos según la prioridad y se
desarrollaron 15 estrategias para las respuestas. Se concluyó que la gestión de riesgos impacta
en un 66.67 por ciento de manera positiva en el logro del presupuesto y cronograma del
proyecto.
The main objective of this research is to manage the impacts on cost and time objectives in a project of metal structures of the company Steelwork Ingenieros S.A and for this, the risk management of the methodology proposed by the Project Management Institute (PMI) project management guide has been followed since it is the most accepted standard worldwide. The order of the methodology is related to the PMBOK 6th edition guide. It began with planning risk management with information from project stakeholders. The risks were then identified with additional information that was analyzed and consolidated into a register of 87 risks divided into 4 categories. Subsequently, based on a questionnaire, a qualitative analysis was carried out using a probability and impact matrix that concluded in a list of high priority risks. Later, a quantitative analysis was carried out applying the Monte Carlo simulation, which was executed in the Excel Crystall Ball program. The binomial distribution and the PERT distribution were used, where an S curve graph and a sensitivity analysis were obtained. The uncertainty simulation was carried out with 95 percent confidence and a cost of 1 770 742.87 soles and a time of 66.86 days was obtained. In addition, risk management was included in the simulation and a cost of 1,795,850.37 soles and a time of 78.91 days were obtained. It was concluded that risk management has a 66.67 percent positive impact on the achievement of the project's budget and schedule.
The main objective of this research is to manage the impacts on cost and time objectives in a project of metal structures of the company Steelwork Ingenieros S.A and for this, the risk management of the methodology proposed by the Project Management Institute (PMI) project management guide has been followed since it is the most accepted standard worldwide. The order of the methodology is related to the PMBOK 6th edition guide. It began with planning risk management with information from project stakeholders. The risks were then identified with additional information that was analyzed and consolidated into a register of 87 risks divided into 4 categories. Subsequently, based on a questionnaire, a qualitative analysis was carried out using a probability and impact matrix that concluded in a list of high priority risks. Later, a quantitative analysis was carried out applying the Monte Carlo simulation, which was executed in the Excel Crystall Ball program. The binomial distribution and the PERT distribution were used, where an S curve graph and a sensitivity analysis were obtained. The uncertainty simulation was carried out with 95 percent confidence and a cost of 1 770 742.87 soles and a time of 66.86 days was obtained. In addition, risk management was included in the simulation and a cost of 1,795,850.37 soles and a time of 78.91 days were obtained. It was concluded that risk management has a 66.67 percent positive impact on the achievement of the project's budget and schedule.
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Keywords
Gestión de riesgos, Estructuras metálicas, Incertidumbre, Simulación