Efectos de desbordamiento espacial de la inversión pública sobre el crecimiento económico distrital en la macrorregión norte del Perú, periodo 2007 - 2019
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Date
2024
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Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
Abstract
La presente investigación analiza el impacto de la inversión pública sobre el crecimiento
económico distrital en la Macrorregión Norte del Perú, incorporando la dependencia espacial
y el efecto de otras variables condicionantes de dicha relación, durante el periodo 2007-2019.
En tal sentido, para el abordaje de dicha problemática se recurre a herramientas cuantitativas
de análisis espacial, como el Índice de Moran, así como el uso modelos de econometría
espacial.
La investigación enfatiza el rol del Estado, vía inversión, bajo el enfoque de Barro (1988) y
Aschauer (1989), donde la inversión pública tiene un impacto directo sobre la productividad
del capital privado y fomenta su expansión. Además, desde la perspectiva del desarrollo
territorial, se reconoce que las condiciones de crecimiento y desarrollo económico no es un
proceso lineal, en donde las características geográficas (observables y no observables) toman
relevancia (Ravallion & Wodon, 1999 y Escobal et. al., 2001), no solo por las restricciones
que imponen, sino por la influencia de la interacción entre los territorios (dependencia
espacial).
Los resultados permiten establecer la presencia de dependencia espacial en la variable
crecimiento económico, es decir, que la dinámica económica en determinado distrito tiende
a correlacionarse con el comportamiento de los distritos vecinos, lo que pone en evidencia
la agudización de las desigualdades (clúster avanzado y rezagado). En este contexto, se
verifica que el impacto de la inversión pública resulta ser insuficiente para favorecer las
condiciones en la dinámica económica en sus distritos, donde a pesar del importante
crecimiento de dichos recursos, tiene un impacto débil y no significativo de tan solo el
0.0027%, por las serias restricciones que imponen las condiciones geográficas, así como una
escasa planificación estratégica en el territorio. Lo anterior revela la importancia de otras
variables que favorecen el crecimiento económico distrital, como el nivel educativo,
servicios básicos (agua y electricidad) y los programas sociales, cuyo impacto va más allá
de los límites geográficos distritales y regionales.
This research analyzes the impact of public investment on district economic growth in the Northern Macroregion of Peru, incorporating spatial dependence and the effect of other conditioning variables of said relationship, during the period 2007-2019. In this sense, to address this problem, quantitative spatial analysis tools are used, such as the Moran Index, as well as spatial econometrics use models. The research emphasizes the role of the State, via investment, under the approach of Barro (1988) and Aschauer (1989), where public investment has a direct impact on the productivity of private capital and encourages its expansion. In addition, from the perspective of territorial development, it is recognized that the conditions of growth and economic development is not a linear process, where the geographical characteristics (observable and unobservable) take on relevance (Ravallion & Wodon, 1999 and Escobal et. al. , 2001), not only because of the restrictions they impose, but also because of the influence of the interaction between the territories (spatial dependence). The results make it possible to establish the presence of spatial dependence in the economic growth variable, that is, that the economic dynamics in a certain district tends to correlate with the behavior of neighboring districts, which shows the worsening of inequalities (advanced cluster and lagging). In this context, it is verified that the impact of public investment turns out to be insufficient to favor the conditions in the economic dynamics in their districts, where despite the significant growth of said resources, it has a weak and insignificant impact of only 0.0027. %, due to the serious restrictions imposed by geographical conditions, as well as little strategic planning in the territory. The foregoing reveals the importance of other variables that favor district economic growth, such as educational level, basic services (water and electricity) and social programs, whose impact goes beyond district and regional geographical limits.
This research analyzes the impact of public investment on district economic growth in the Northern Macroregion of Peru, incorporating spatial dependence and the effect of other conditioning variables of said relationship, during the period 2007-2019. In this sense, to address this problem, quantitative spatial analysis tools are used, such as the Moran Index, as well as spatial econometrics use models. The research emphasizes the role of the State, via investment, under the approach of Barro (1988) and Aschauer (1989), where public investment has a direct impact on the productivity of private capital and encourages its expansion. In addition, from the perspective of territorial development, it is recognized that the conditions of growth and economic development is not a linear process, where the geographical characteristics (observable and unobservable) take on relevance (Ravallion & Wodon, 1999 and Escobal et. al. , 2001), not only because of the restrictions they impose, but also because of the influence of the interaction between the territories (spatial dependence). The results make it possible to establish the presence of spatial dependence in the economic growth variable, that is, that the economic dynamics in a certain district tends to correlate with the behavior of neighboring districts, which shows the worsening of inequalities (advanced cluster and lagging). In this context, it is verified that the impact of public investment turns out to be insufficient to favor the conditions in the economic dynamics in their districts, where despite the significant growth of said resources, it has a weak and insignificant impact of only 0.0027. %, due to the serious restrictions imposed by geographical conditions, as well as little strategic planning in the territory. The foregoing reveals the importance of other variables that favor district economic growth, such as educational level, basic services (water and electricity) and social programs, whose impact goes beyond district and regional geographical limits.
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